Climate forecasting and early warning

Locusts and grasshoppers are migratory insects that cause significant agricultural damage and food insecurity in many parts of the world. Rainfall can create favorable conditions for their breeding and migration by influencing environmental conditions like soil moisture and vegetation cover. Climate forecasting models can play a crucial role in predicting and mitigating the impacts of locust outbreaks by providing early warnings to affected regions. Accurate and reliable forecasting requires a comprehensive understanding of the complex ecological and environmental factors that influence locust behavior and population dynamics.
This page offers some resources on climate forecasting and early warning that may be helpful for those interested in locust and grasshopper outbreaks.
Survey and control data collection

Survey and control data collection methods vary widely among countries because they are shaped by local ecology, infrastructure, staffing, and management priorities. Some programs rely on regular ground surveys by trained inspectors, while others combine field observations with GPS-enabled mobile reporting, remote sensing, aircraft, or drone-supported mapping to improve coverage and response time. The type of data collected also differs, but it usually includes locust or grasshopper density, developmental stage, vegetation condition, rainfall, soil moisture, and habitat characteristics. In many areas, these datasets are then used to guide control decisions, track outbreak development, and share information across regional surveillance networks.
eLocust4 is the latest tool developed by the UN FAO for locust survey and data collection. It is a rugged field tablet system used by locust survey and control officers to collect and transmit desert locust data in real time from remote areas. It combines GPS-enabled field reporting with satellite communication, allowing teams to record ecology, locust presence, control actions, and photos, then send that information directly to national locust centers and FAO’s global early warning system.
At a high level, it supports faster detection, better forecasting, and more targeted control by turning field observations into immediately usable operational data. Its value lies in helping countries respond earlier, reduce the spread of infestations, and improve the efficiency of preventive locust management.
Climate forecasting
Climate forecasting plays a significant role in predicting and understanding locust outbreaks. Locusts are highly influenced by weather and climatic conditions, particularly temperature, rainfall, and vegetation growth. Climate forecasting models and data analysis help identify favorable conditions for locust breeding, migration, and population growth. By monitoring and analyzing climate patterns, scientists and experts can anticipate periods of increased locust activity and identify regions at risk of infestation. This information is crucial for early warning systems and enables authorities to allocate resources, implement preventive measures, and plan targeted interventions to control locust populations. Climate forecasting provides valuable insights into the dynamics of locust outbreaks and assists in developing effective strategies for locust management and mitigation.
Early warning
Early warning systems play a crucial role in effective locust management. These systems aim to detect and monitor locust populations, enabling timely interventions to prevent or mitigate potential outbreaks. By using various technologies, such as satellite imagery, weather data, and ground surveillance, early warning systems can identify areas prone to locust infestations and forecast the likelihood of outbreaks. This information allows authorities to mobilize resources, implement control measures, and coordinate efforts with affected communities. Early warning systems provide valuable time for preparedness and response, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of locust management strategies, ultimately minimizing the economic and ecological impact of locust outbreaks. However, existing systems still need improvement, especially disseminating information in time, and paring warnings with specific information for stakeholders to take action.
Featured resources
The East Africa Hazards Watch enables the monitoring of extreme events—such as droughts, cyclones, desert locust infestations, heavy rainfall, floods, and crop failures—that can have severe and widespread impacts across the region.
IGAD Hazard Watch brings together several technologies to turn environmental variables into operational locust risk maps. It uses satellite Earth observation, especially Copernicus Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 imagery, along with rainfall, vegetation, soil, altitude, and weather data to identify where breeding conditions are becoming favorable. Those inputs are then processed with statistical modeling, including MaxEnt, and combined with GIS-based mapping and open web platforms so authorities can view updated hazard maps and warnings. The system is designed to support early warning, targeted survey, and more precise control decisions rather than broad, reactive spraying.
Drones and satellites

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones, are being developed for locust management with the hope of expanding survey areas, translating landscape images to decision-makers in real-time, and applying chemicals in control campaigns.
Traditional field surveys are often slow, costly, and difficult to carry out because inspectors and agronomic teams must travel to remote or unsafe locations. As a result, locust breeding or spread may not be confirmed until significant damage has already occurred. Satellite-based monitoring helps address this gap by providing wide-area coverage and frequent images that can detect changes in vegetation, moisture, and soil conditions.
At present, there have been some successes with using drones for surveillance that can transmit data to the FAO eLocust3 tablet in near real time [1]. However, their small size limits the weight they can carry for control spraying (only 10 kg) and other limitations like short battery life (limited flight time of 10–15 min), operating costs, and lack of trained operators still presents barriers to making this technology more successful [1].
Click here for more on drones and satellites
Projects
Unmaintained early warning efforts
IASC Humanitarian Early Warning Service (HEWSweb)
Summary for website: "...an inter-agency partnership project aimed at establishing a common platform for humanitarian early warnings and forecasts for natural hazards."
Information Core for Southern African Migrant Pests (ICOSAMP)
Migrant Pest Information System for decision makers in the SADC region
Forecasting and early warning resources
Organizations
| Organization name | Acronym | Website | Type | Focus | Focus keywords | Geographic purview |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agri SA | View | Government | Management | Control, Forecasting, Monitoring | South Africa | |
| Agricultural Research Council of South Africa | ARC | View | Government | Research | Forecasting, Information Hub, Monitoring, Research, Training, Ecology, Management, Outbreaks, Pesticides | South Africa |
| Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service | APHIS | View | Government | Management, Education, Information Hub | Control, Forecasting, Monitoring | United States |
| Australian Plague Locust Commission | APLC | View | Government | Management, Research, Governance | Agricultural development, Control, Coordination, Education, Emergency assistance, Forecasting, Funding, Governance, Information hub, International development, Media, Monitoring, Policy, Regional cooperation, Research, Sustainable development, Technology, Training, Natural sciences | Australia |
| Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International | CABI | View | Intergovernmental Organization, Non-profit Organization | Development, Management, Media, Governance | Agricultural Development, Community Development, Control, Coordination, Forecasting, International Development, Media, Monitoring, Policy, Regional Cooperation, Research, Sustainable Development, Technology, Training, Edible Insects | United Kingdom |
| Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region | CRC | View | Intergovernmental Organization | Management, Governance, Education, Information Hub | Training, Regional cooperation, Monitoring, Control, Forecasting, Natural sciences | Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Somalia |
| Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development | DPI WA | View | Government | Management | Monitoring, Control, Forecasting, Training | Australia |
| FAO Desert Locust Information Service | DLIS | View | Intergovernmental Organization | Development, Management, Education, Governance, Information Hub, Funding | Agricultural development, Community development, Control, Coordination, Emergency assistance, Forecasting, International development, Media, Monitoring, Policy, Regional cooperation, Sustainable development, Technology, Training, Early warning, Natural sciences | Africa, Asia, Europe |
| FAO Locust Watch in Caucasus and Central Asia | CCA | View | Intergovernmental Organization | Education, Information Hub, Governance | Training, Regional cooperation, Monitoring, Control, Policy, Forecasting | Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia (country), Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Kyrgyzstan |
| IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre | ICPAC | View | Intergovernmental Organization | Development, Management, Research | Forecasting, Agricultural development, International development, Early warning, Natural sciences | Kenya |
| India Locust Warning Organization | LWO | Government | Management, Information Hub, Research | Monitoring, Control, Forecasting, Training, Natural sciences | India | |
| Information Core for Southern African Migratory Pests | ICOSAMP | View | Other | Governance, Information Hub, Management, Education | Training, Regional cooperation, Monitoring, Control, Forecasting | Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Eswatini, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe |
| Intergovernmental Authority on Development | IGAD | View | Intergovernmental Organization | Development, Management, Research | Forecasting, Agricultural development, International development, Natural sciences | Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda |
| International Red Locust Control Organization for Central and Southern Africa | IRLCO CSA | [www.redlocust.org.zm/ View] | Intergovernmental Organization | Management, Governance, Funding | Monitoring, Control, Regional cooperation, Forecasting, Natural sciences | Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi |
| Le Centre National de Lutte Antiacridienne | CNLA | View | Government | Research, Management, Governance | Monitoring, Control, Coordination, Forecasting, Natural sciences | Mauritania |
| Ministry of Agricultural Development of Somaliland | View | Government | Development, Management | Agricultural development, Control, Forecasting, Monitoring, Emergency assistance | Somalia | |
| Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development of Kenya | View | Government | Management, Development | Control, Forecasting, Monitoring, Agricultural development | Kenya | |
| Ministry of Agriculture, Water, Fishery, Livestock and Marine Resources | MAEPE-RH | View | Government | Governance, Management | Management, Forecasting, Monitoring, Control | Djibouti |
| National Desert Locust Control Center | CNLCP | View | Government | Research, Management, Development, Governance | Coordination, Monitoring, Control, Agricultural development, Forecasting, Policy, Regional cooperation, Sustainable development, Technology, Training | Mali |
| National Institute of Plant Protection of Algeria | INPV | View | Government | Governance, Management, Information Hub, Development | Regional cooperation, Control, Forecasting, Monitoring, Coordination, Agricultural development, Training, Natural sciences | Algeria |
| Nevada Department of Agriculture | NDA | View | Government | Governance, Management | Monitoring, Management, Forecasting | United States |
| New South Wales Department of Primary Industries | NSW DPI | View | Government | Education, Management | Monitoring, Control, Forecasting, Training, Natural sciences | Australia |
| Plant Protection and Quarantine Directorate of Afganistan | PPQD | View | Government | Development, Funding, Management, Research, Governance | Agricultural development, Community development, Control, Coordination, Emergency assistance, Forecasting, International development, Monitoring, Regional cooperation, Research, Sustainable development, Technology, Training | Afghanistan |
| Prairie Pest Monitoring Network | View | Non-profit Organization | Management | Monitoring, Forecasting, Natural sciences | Canada | |
| Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries | QLD DPI | View | Government | Management | Monitoring, Control, Forecasting, Natural sciences | Australia |
| Rangeland Grasshopper and Mormon Cricket Suppression Program at the United States Department of Agriculture | View | Government | Management, Education, Information Hub | Control, Forecasting, Monitoring | United States | |
| State Committee for Plant Health | CESAVE | View | Government | Information Hub, Management | Control, Monitoring, Forecasting, Training, Natural sciences | Mexico |
| The French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development | CIRAD | View | Government | Education, Development, Research, Management | Forecasting, International development, Training, Agricultural development, Sustainable development, Natural sciences, Modeling, Monitoring, Research, Control, Community development | France |
| The National Food Safety and Quality Service | SENASA AR | View | Government | Management, Governance, Funding, Research, Education | Control, Coordination, Emergency assistance, Forecasting, Monitoring, Regional cooperation, Technology, Training, Agricultural development, Sustainable development, Natural sciences | Argentina |
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Matthews GA (2021) New Technology for Desert Locust Control. Agronomy 11: 1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11061052