Climate forecasting and early warning

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Locusts and grasshoppers are migratory insects that cause significant agricultural damage and food insecurity in many parts of the world. Rainfall can create favorable conditions for their breeding and migration. Therefore, climate forecasting models can play a crucial role in predicting and mitigating the impacts of locust outbreaks by providing early warnings to affected regions. However, accurate and reliable forecasting requires a comprehensive understanding of the complex ecological and environmental factors that influence locust behavior and population dynamics. Below are some of the organizations and projects involved in climate forecasting and early warning that may be helpful for those interested in locust and grasshopper outbreaks.

Photo by Gregory Peterson Locusta migratoria トノサマバッタ mating along riverside path near the tennis courts in Yasugawa Sports Park in Deba, Ritto City.

Forecasting and early warning resources

English short title Resource link Descriptive keyword Language Species purview Geographic purview Resource description
Climate Forecasting Climate Services for Eastern Africa View URL Early warning, Forecasting, Meteorology English Eastern Africa Resources for climate monitoring, prediction, early warning, and application of climate information services in the greater Horn of Africa region.
COLA Weather Forecast Maps View URL Forecasting, Meteorology, Rainfall, Weather English Provides graphical weather forecasts for various regions around the world, including temperature, wind, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure.
Google Earth Engine View URL Forecasting, Meteorology English Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania
A cloud-based platform developed by Google that provides access to an extensive collection of geospatial data and powerful computational capabilities. It combines satellite imagery, aerial photography, and other Earth observation data with advanced algorithms to enable analysis, visualization, and interpretation of geospatial information at a global scale.
High tech early warning system could curb next South African locust swarms View URL
Media article, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Infestations, Early warning, Forecasting, Monitoring, Chemical control, Biopesticide, Pesticide management, Pesticides, Technology, Spraying, Agriculture, Crop health, Migration, Earth observation, Rainfall, Weather, Meteorology, Public health
English Brown locust (Locustana pardalina) South Africa
International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) View URL Forecasting, Meteorology English Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania Video tutorial on how to use the map
Maroc Meteo View URL Meteorology, Forecasting, Weather French Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Morocco MarocMétéo provides weather information, forecasts, and climate-related data for various regions of Morocco.
MétéoAlgérie View URL Meteorology, Forecasting, Weather French Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Algeria National meteorological and climatological service of Algeria.
NASA WorldWind View URL Meteorology, Forecasting, Weather English Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania
WorldWind is an open source virtual globe API. WorldWind allows developers to quickly and easily create interactive visualizations of 3D globe, map and geographical information. Organizations around the world use WorldWind to monitor weather patterns, visualize cities and terrain, track vehicle movement, analyze geospatial data and educate humanity about the Earth.
Naval Research Lab View URL Forecasting, Meteorology, Rainfall, Weather English The website is maintained by the United States Navy and focuses on providing satellite-based meteorological and oceanographic data.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center View URL Meteorology, Forecasting, Weather English Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania Provides climate outlooks, forecasts, and assessments to help decision-makers and the public better understand and anticipate climate variability and change.
Report of Monitoring and Assessment of Desert Locust in Africa and Asia 2020 View URL Report, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Infestations, Monitoring, Migration, Agriculture, Crop health, Economics, Earth observation, Meteorology, Remote sensing English Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Africa, Asia
Reports on the desert locust outbreak from February 2020- August 2020 using meteorological data, field data, and remote sensing data from satellites such as GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series in the US, and Sentinel series in the EU.
Southern Africa locust outbreak September 2020 View URL
Summary, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Agriculture, Food security, Management, Integrated pest management, Pesticide management, Economics, Environmental assessment, Emergency response, Pesticides, Chemical control, Forecasting, Monitoring, Rainfall, Weather, Meteorology
English Migratory locust (Locusta migratoria)
To Track Massive Locust Swarms, Officials Use Tool that Forecasts Smoke Plumes View URL
Media article, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Infestations, Management, Rainfall, Weather, Climate change, Food security, Livelihoods, Migration, Agriculture, Crop health, Monitoring, Spraying, Pesticide management, Pesticides, Chemical control, Meteorology, Modeling, Behavior, Technology, Early warning, Forecasting
English Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) The pests that have been laying waste to crops across Africa follow the winds, just like smoke
Tunisia National Institute of Meteorology View URL Meteorology, Forecasting, Weather English, French, Arabic Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Tunisia Meteo Tunisia is the official meteorological service of Tunisia, providing weather forecasts and meteorological information for various regions in Tunisia.
USAID NASA SERVIR View URL Forecasting, Meteorology English Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania SERVIR is helping people in more than 45 countries access and use satellite imagery and climate and weather information to make decisions about development.
USGS FEWS NET Data Portal View URL Forecasting, Meteorology English Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania Provides access to geo-spatial data, satellite image products, and derived data products in support of FEWS NET drought monitoring efforts throughout the world.
Weather Underground View URL Forecasting, Meteorology, Rainfall, Weather English Weather Underground provides weather forecasts, current conditions, radar and satellite imagery, as well as other weather-related information for locations around the world.
Wind Finder View URL Forecasting, Meteorology, Rainfall, Weather English Windfinder is an online platform that focuses on providing wind, weather, and wave forecasts for various locations worldwide.
Windy.com View URL Forecasting, Meteorology, Rainfall, Weather English
An online platform that provides interactive weather forecasting and visualization tools. It offers a wide range of weather-related information, including wind patterns, temperature, precipitation, pressure, and other meteorological data.


Early warning

Desert locust swarm. Photo by Oxfam America

Early warning systems play a crucial role in effective locust management. These systems aim to detect and monitor locust populations, enabling timely interventions to prevent or mitigate potential outbreaks. By using various technologies, such as satellite imagery, weather data, and ground surveillance, early warning systems can identify areas prone to locust infestations and forecast the likelihood of outbreaks. This information allows authorities to mobilize resources, implement control measures, and coordinate efforts with affected communities. Early warning systems provide valuable time for preparedness and response, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of locust management strategies, ultimately minimizing the economic and ecological impact of locust outbreaks. However, existing systems still need improvement, especially disseminating information in time, and paring warnings with specific information for stakeholders to take action. This page provides a comprehensive list of projects, organizations, and resources related to early warning efforts.

Projects

Name Acronym Project start year Related organization Country purview Descriptive keywords Species purview Status
Africa InterTropical Front National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Forecasting, Meteorology, Rainfall, Weather Active
CABI BioSpace project 2020 Crop health, Invasive species, Forecasting, Meteorology, Remote sensing, Early warning Migratory locust (Locusta migratoria), Yellow-spined bamboo locust (Ceracris kiangsu) Active
Project Locust Tomorrownow.io Meteorology, Forecasting, Technology, Early warning Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Active


Information Hubs

Desert locust swarm. Photo by Oxfam America

English short title Year published Category Author Species purview Geographic purview Language Descriptive keyword
Climate Forecasting Climate Services for Eastern Africa Information hub IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Eastern Africa English Early warning, Forecasting, Meteorology
FAO open DropBox resources for innovation 2021 Information hub FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania English Forecasting, Survey, Early warning, Robotics, Drones, Technology
FAO: Tracking Locust with Tech Information hub Vulcan Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Africa English Early warning, Forecasting
USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network Information hub United States Agency for International Development Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Africa, Asia, Americas English Early warning


Organizations

Organization Acronym Website Type Focus Focus keywords Geographic purview
DLIS View URL Intergovernmental Organization Development, Management, Education, Governance, Information Hub, Funding
Agricultural development, Community development, Control, Coordination, Emergency assistance, Forecasting, International development, Media, Monitoring, Policy, Regional cooperation, Sustainable development, Technology, Training, Early warning, Natural sciences
GIEWS View URL Intergovernmental Organization Early warning
ICPAC View URL Intergovernmental Organization Development, Management, Research Forecasting, Agricultural development, International development, Early warning, Natural sciences
View URL Intergovernmental Organization Information Hub Early warning, Monitoring
PAAT View URL Government Research
Agriculture, Agroecology, Artificial intelligence, Climate change, Early warning, Ecology, Forecasting, Geographic Information System (GIS), Invasive species, Landscape ecology, Modeling, Monitoring, Rangeland management, Remote sensing
United States of America
SUDA View URL Government
Agriculture, Behavioral neuroscience, Biological control, Climate change, Collective movement, Early warning, Education, Environmental science, Geographic Information System (GIS), Integrated pest management, Management, Modeling, Remote sensing
India
View URL Private Sector Other Meteorology, Forecasting, Technology, Early warning
UNSW View URL University Research Early warning, Ecology, Insect behavior, Migration, Population dynamics, Remote sensing, Radar Australia
View URL Private Sector Information Hub
Agriculture, Climate change, Coordination, Digital tool, Early warning, Emergency alerts, Food security, Geographic Information System (GIS), Forecasting, Monitoring, Modeling, Remote sensing, Research, Information hub


Guides and education

English short title Year published Category Author Species purview Geographic purview Language Descriptive keyword
Contingency planning seminar 2002 Guide Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Egypt English Workshop, Chemical control, Emergency response, Early warning
Desert locust and remote sensing manual to visualize and analyze SPOT4-VEGETATION images Guide Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Italy English Database, Early warning
Desert locust early warning system infographic Guide FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Africa, Asia English Early warning, Infographic
Desert Locust Forecasting: Art or Science? Guide FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Africa, Asia English Video, Presentation, Early warning
EMPRES strengthening desert locust management Guide FAO Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations English
Infographic, Education, Distribution, Biology, Ecology, Rainfall, Locusts, Infestations, Migration, Outbreaks, Locust outbreaks, Monitoring, Emergency response, Early warning, Chemical control, Biological control, Mechanical control, Mating behavior, Behavior, Insect behavior, Overview, Communication resource
Human health and environmental safety in desert locust control operations 2019 Guide Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) English Public health, Conservation, Pesticide management, Metarhizium acridum, Early warning
Key aspects on desert locust information and reporting Guide Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) English Early warning, SWARMS, Geographic Information System (GIS)
Management of Desert Locust information 2019 Guide Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Italy English Management, eLocust, Early warning, Remote sensing, Data analysis, Technology, Forecasting, RAMSES
Preventive control strategy 2019 Guide Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) English Early warning, Monitoring, Outbreaks, Decision making
The use of drones for Desert Locust survey Guide FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Asia, Africa English Early warning, Monitoring, Presentation, Robotics, Drones, Technology
What is RAMSES? Guide Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations English RAMSES, eLocust, Early warning, Remote sensing, Decision making


Climate forecasting

Photo by NOAA

Climate forecasting plays a significant role in predicting and understanding locust outbreaks. Locusts are highly influenced by weather and climatic conditions, particularly temperature, rainfall, and vegetation growth. Climate forecasting models and data analysis help identify favorable conditions for locust breeding, migration, and population growth. By monitoring and analyzing climate patterns, scientists and experts can anticipate periods of increased locust activity and identify regions at risk of infestation. This information is crucial for early warning systems and enables authorities to allocate resources, implement preventive measures, and plan targeted interventions to control locust populations. Climate forecasting provides valuable insights into the dynamics of locust outbreaks and assists in developing effective strategies for locust management and mitigation.

English short title Year published Category Author Species purview Geographic purview Language Descriptive keyword
Drought puts Alberta farmers at risk of another scourge of grasshoppers 2024 Media Two-striped grasshopper (Melanoplus bivittatus), Bruner spur-throated grasshopper (Melanoplus bruneri) Canada English Media article, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Crop health, Agriculture, Forecasting
Google Earth Engine Information hub Google Earth Engine Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania English Forecasting, Meteorology
International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Information hub The Earth Institute, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania English Forecasting, Meteorology
Locusts devour 3 000 hectares of grazing on EC farm 2021 Media Food for Mzansi Brown locust (Locustana pardalina) South Africa English
Media article, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Infestations, Grazing, Livestock, Rainfall, Monitoring, Forecasting, Agriculture, Migration, Pesticide management, Pesticides, Governance, Spraying, Community development
Locusts: A close-up look at the swarms devouring the world's crops - BBC News Media BBC News Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) English
Media article, Infographic, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Infestations, Agriculture, Crop health, Food security, Livelihoods, Rainfall, Forecasting, Biology, Ecology, Morphology, Behavior, Migration, Distribution, Climate change
New Generation of Desert Locusts Breeding in Horn of Africa 2020 Media Bloomberg News Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) English Media article, Outbreaks, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Infestations, Forecasting
Northern Cape ready and waiting for what could be 'record number' of locusts 2021 Media Times Live Brown locust (Locustana pardalina) South Africa English Media article, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Infestations, Rainfall, Agriculture, Crop health, Forecasting, Pesticides, Management, Food security
USAID NASA SERVIR Information hub SERVIR Global Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania English Forecasting, Meteorology
USGS FEWS NET Data Portal Information hub United States Geological Survey, United States Agency for International Development Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania English Forecasting, Meteorology
Why today's biblical locust swarms can't be stopped 2020 Media Mashable Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) English
Media article, Locust outbreaks, Outbreaks, Locusts, Infestations, Agriculture, Mechanical control, Chemical control, Management, Pesticides, Forecasting, Monitoring, Migration, Pesticide management, Public health, Crop health, Food security, Behavior, Rainfall, Climate change


Weather

Querying the database found no results.


Unmaintained early warning efforts

IASC Humanitarian Early Warning Service (HEWSweb)
Summary for website: "...an inter-agency partnership project aimed at establishing a common platform for humanitarian early warnings and forecasts for natural hazards."

Information Core for Southern African Migrant Pests (ICOSAMP)
Migrant Pest Information System for decision makers in the SADC region

Drones

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones, are being developed for locust management with the hope of expanding survey areas, translating landscape images to decision-makers in real-time, and applying chemicals in control campaigns. At present, there have been some successes with using drones for surveillance that can transmit data to the FAO eLocust3 tablet in near real time [1]. However, their small size limits the weight they can carry for control spraying (only 10 kg) and other limitations like short battery life (limited flight time of 10–15 min), operating costs, and lack of trained operators still presents barriers to making this technology more successful [1].

Organizations associated with drones

Organization Acronym Website Type Focus Focus keywords Geographic purview
View URL Private Sector Other Robotics & drone technology Kenya
View URL Private Sector Development, Management, Education, Research Forecasting, Sustainable development, Technology, Training, Robotics & drone technology Spain, Brazil, Denmark
View URL Private Sector Other Technology, Robotics & drone technology
View URL Private Sector Management Robotics & drone technology United States of America


Drone resources

Photo by CABI
English short title Year published Category Author Species purview Geographic purview Language Descriptive keyword
Action plan for managing the Central American locust 2019 Guide International Regional Organization of Plant and Animal Health Giant red-winged grasshopper (Tropidacris cristata), Taeniopoda obscura, Chromacris colorata, Achurum sumichrasti, Abracris flavolineata, Bird grasshopper (Schistocerca pallens), Gray bird grasshopper (Schistocerca nitens), Mischievous bird grasshopper (Schistocerca damnifica), Central American locust (Schistocerca piceifrons) Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Dominican Republic Spanish Management, Biology, Species identification, Biopesticide, Robotics, Drones, Technology
Chinese Authorities Deploy Fleets of Drones to Battle Locust Invasion Media Caixin Global Yellow-spined bamboo locust (Ceracris kiangsu) English Robotics, Drones, Technology
FAO dlocust resources Information hub FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Africa, Asia English Robotics, Drones, Technology
FAO open DropBox resources for innovation 2021 Information hub FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania English Forecasting, Survey, Early warning, Robotics, Drones, Technology
Intensive control operations reduced locust threat in India, Pak, says FAO 2020 Media Hindustan Times Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) English Media article, Outbreaks, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Infestations, Management, Governance, Chemical control, Pesticides, Pesticide management, Early warning, Spraying, Aerial control operations, Community development, Robotics, Drones, Technology
Southern China battles worst locust infestation in decades 2020 Media South China Morning Post Yellow-spined bamboo locust (Ceracris kiangsu) English Media article, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Infestations, Outbreaks, Agriculture, Food security, Crop health, Press release, Governance, Spraying, Pesticides, Management, Monitoring, Robotics, Drones, Technology
The Biblical locust plagues of 2020 Media BBC News Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) English Media article, Outbreaks, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Infestations, Crop health, Agriculture, Food security, Behavior, Ecology, Biology, Migration, Economics, Weather, Management, Integrated pest management, Mechanical control, Chemical control, Pesticides, Pesticide management, Livelihoods, Governance, Aerial control operations, Biopesticide, Biological control, Forecasting, Robotics, Drones, Technology
The use of drones for Desert Locust survey Guide FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Asia, Africa English Early warning, Monitoring, Presentation, Robotics, Drones, Technology
Theoretical-practical instruction for piloting HP2 2020 Guide FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Asia, Africa English Training manual, Robotics, Drones, Technology
Yellow-Spined Bamboo Locust Invades Southwest China, Occupies Nearly 6,667 Hectares Media Yicai Global Yellow-spined bamboo locust (Ceracris kiangsu) English Media article, Locust outbreaks, Locusts, Outbreaks, Infestations, Crop health, Monitoring, Chemical control, Aerial control operations, Pesticides, Agriculture, Economics, Robotics, Drones, Technology


References

  1. 1.0 1.1 Matthews GA (2021) New Technology for Desert Locust Control. Agronomy 11: 1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11061052