Jump to content

Climate change

From HopperWiki

Locust, grasshoppers, and climate change

Climate change refers to long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, and other atmospheric conditions on Earth. These changes are primarily driven by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, leading to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The atmosphere, earth, and oceans have been warmed by these human activities since around 1750.[1] The consequences are currently being felt across species and environments and will continue to pose great challenges in the future.[1][2][3]

Climate change can have significant direct and indirect effects on ecosystems and species around the world, including insects like grasshoppers and locusts. Insects are ectotherms and are majorly influenced by fluctuations in temperature. Locusts and grasshoppers are responsive to long-term climate patterns, like periods of drought or rainfall, as well as by short-term changes in weather and hydrological conditions, including precipitation, temperature, wind, soil moisture, and flooding. Climate change can directly and indirectly impact all these factors, therefore affecting the abundance, distribution, and behavior of grasshoppers and locusts.[4][5]

Temperature Changes

Rising temperatures associated with climate change can alter the developmental processes of grasshoppers and locusts. Warmer temperatures may accelerate their life cycles, affecting their growth rates and reproductive patterns.[5] For acrididae, increased temperatures can incite a variety of behavioral and physiological responses. The possible impact of global changes/warming on outbreaking species can be assessed according to four criteria:[6][5] (i) phenological changes, including the number of annual generations, (ii) habitat/niche change, (iii) range shift and (iv) extinction. Most commonly discussed are changes in distribution areas, and changes in development thresholds like hatching, instar durations, maturation time, reproduction period, egg laying, and the number of annual generations.[6][7][8] Longer periods of warm temperatures could move hatching and maturations earlier in the year, causing earlier outbreaks and allowing for an increased number of generations per year.[6] Responding to shifts in temperature, rainfall, plant availability and nutrition, and soil moisture will require resilience and/or adaptive plasticity, and may expand the climatic range and geographic distribution in some species.[9][5]

Frequent and intense rainfall in eastern Africa, a key hotspot for desert locust outbreaks, is influenced by coupled ocean, atmosphere systems like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Because locust dynamics respond closely to shifts in these climate patterns, long-term trends are shaped by changes in IOD and ENSO conditions, whether acting separately or together. Increases in extreme rainfall linked to these systems show that climate change impacts locust activity not just through rising average temperatures, but through more frequent and severe weather events. Projections indicate that as the climate warms, extreme rainfall, soil moisture, and temperature will all rise, creating increasingly favorable conditions for locust breeding and outbreaks.[9][10][4]

About 90% of human-generated heat is absorbed by the oceans,[11][12] with the western Indian Ocean warming the fastest, by an average of 1.2 °C in summer.[13] This rapid warming has intensified extreme climate events in nearby regions,[14][15][16] including the strongest cyclones to hit the Arabian Peninsula in recent history (Gonu 2007, Phet 2010, Mekunu 2018).[10] Warming oceans and increased temperatures are predicted to bring more intense rainfall, stronger winds, and tropical cyclones to some areas (e.g. North Indian Ocean) which may create a favorable habitat for locust breeding and migration (e.g. desert locusts in the Arabian Peninsula).[10][17]

Distribution and habitat changes

As climates change, some locust species are predicted to increase their distribution range and outbreak potential while others could decrease.[7][18][19][20][5]

The Italian locust may benefit from warming and increase its range or become a more serious pest in West Palearctic.[6] In Russia it is already shifting further north.[21] The South American locust is projected to extend its outbreak range to higher latitudes and altitudes[5][22], while the Australian plague locust is anticipated to downsize.[23][5] In the case of the two desert locust subspecies, their solitarious ranges are expected to respond differently.[5] The well-known northern subspecies (S. gregaria gregaria) may undergo contraction in specific areas[24], while the less studied southern subspecies (S. gregaria flaviventris) is predicted to expand its range.[7] This emphasizes that although S. g. flaviventris has rarely been associated with outbreaks historically, it is a subspecies that could potentially pose a future threat.[5]

Gregarious ranges for the desert locust have been predicted to increase in a warming climate with emerging hotspots in west central Asia.[4]

Ecological Consequences

Because of their mobility, herbivores can move to higher elevations faster than plant communities, leading to a disruption in the ecological interactions between herbivores and plant communities.[25] The altered abundance and distribution of grasshoppers and locusts can have cascading effects on ecosystems.[5] Increased insect activity may affect the dynamics of plant communities, disrupt food webs, and impact other species that rely on these insects for food.

Land-use change

Grazing or land management methods can lower plant nitrogen and increase the abundance of some locust and grasshopper species[26][27][28][29][30][5] When land experiences degradation, it often leads to changes in soil and vegetation abundance and nutrient content. This alteration in plant composition can inadvertently favor the growth of plants that are preferred by locusts that have a high nutritional requirement for carbohydrates. Consequently, these changes create an environment that is more conducive to locust reproduction and population growth.

Read more about nutritional intake target

Heavy livestock grazing fostered outbreaks of the Mongolian locust (Oedaleus decorus) by reducing nitrogen levels and creating an optimal nutritional environment for the species.[26] In Senegal, the Senegalese grasshoppe (Oedaleus senegalensis), is most abundant in fields with low soil organic matter and plants exhibiting low nitrogen and protein levels.[31][29] This species seem to have a carbohydrate-biased intake target[31][30] Similarly, in Paraguay, South American locust (Schistocerca cancellata) demonstrated enhanced performance on invasive grasses abundant in carbohydrates.[32] These studies suggest that as nitrogen (a good proxy for protein) is depleted in the soil, grasses become more carbohydrate-biased and therefore more suitable for many locust species, allowing them to be more prolific agricultural pests.[5]

Deforestation in Australia and Indonesia has likely led to outbreaks of Migratory locust (Locusta migratoria).[33] The Central American locust (Schistocerca piceifrons)[34][35] and the South American locust[36] have been impacted by the destruction of forested areas for agricultural expansion. Between 2000 and 2020, the preferred habitat of the migratory locust in China experienced a reduction and relocation, driven by changes in land use and land cover.[37][5] Conversions from woodland and artificial surfaces, like concrete, to grassland, cropland, and wetland expanded locust habitat, while conversions in the opposite direction led to a decrease.[5] Deforestation has been identified as a probable catalyst for locust outbreaks and swarms among the migratory locust populations in Australia [38] and Indonesia[33], as well as the Central American locust.[34][35][5] The expansion of pastures resulting from deforestation is associated with locust outbreaks, which can be attributed to land management practices that degrade soils and diminish plant nitrogen content. This includes practices like continuous high livestock grazing.[26][27][28][29][39]

Nutrient dilution

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels can lead to indirect consequences like enhanced plant growth and a reduction in plant nitrogen content.[5] The impact of these changes will vary depending on locust species and their specific habitat. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide that dilutes plant nutrient content can disrupt the ecological relationship between herbivores and plant communities.[25][40] However, it is crucial to rely on long-term ecological datasets to accurately discern these correlations.[40]

Climate change impacts by species

South American locust (Schistocerca cancellata)
Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera)
Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria)

Tools and technology

Newly gathered microclimate data encompassing temperature, wind speeds, and soil temperature [41] [42] along with advanced modeling tools like NicheMapR, [43] have significantly enhanced our ability to predict the repercussions of environmental shifts on the behavior, distribution, and abundance of grasshoppers and other organisms. [44] [5] Recent additions to the modeling toolkit include spatial point pattern analysis (SPPA) [45] and machine learning approach such as MaxEnt.[46] Additionally, modeling frameworks that take into account how climatic variables affect the effectiveness of biopesticides can provide valuable guidance for practitioners in the field.[47]

Resources

IPPC Secretariat. 2021. Scientific review of the impact of climate change on plant pests – A global challenge to prevent and mitigate plant pest risks in agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. Rome. FAO on behalf of the IPPC Secretariat. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4769en

Organizations associated with climate change

Organization name Acronym Website Type Focus Focus keywords Geographic purview
Global Locust Initiative GLI View University Research, Education, Information Hub Sustainable development, Ecology, Nutrition, Social science, Natural sciences, Agriculture, Agroecology, Biology, Behavior, Biological control, Climate change, Education, Sustainability science, Geometric framework, Grazing, Governance, Food security, Arts and humanities, Land use management, Landscape ecology, Locusts, Migration, Phase polyphenism, Phenotypic plasticity, Soil science United States, Senegal, Australia, China, Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Mali


References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
  2. ↑ Shivanna KR (2022) Climate change and its impact on biodiversity and human welfare. Proc Indian Natl Sci Acad 88: 160–171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43538-022-00073-6
  3. ↑ Kemp L, Xu C, Depledge J, Lenton TM (2022) Climate endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 119(34): e2108146119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Liu X, Zhang D, He X (2024) Unveiling the role of climate in spatially synchronized locust outbreak risks. Science Advances 10: eadj1164. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj1164
  5. ↑ 5.00 5.01 5.02 5.03 5.04 5.05 5.06 5.07 5.08 5.09 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 5.16 Ries MW, Adriaansen C, Aldobai S, Berry K, Bal AB, Catenaccio MC, Cigliano MM, Cullen DA, Deveson T, Diongue A, Foquet B, Hadrich J, Hunter D, Johnson DL, Pablo Karnatz J, Lange CE, Lawton D, Lazar M, Latchininsky AV, Lecoq M, Le Gall M, Lockwood J, Manneh B, Overson R, Peterson BF, Piou C, Poot-Pech MA, Robinson BE, Rogers SM, Song H, Springate S, Therville C, Trumper E, Waters C, Woller DA, Youngblood JP, Zhang L, Cease A (2024) Global perspectives and transdisciplinary opportunities for locust and grasshopper pest management and research. Journal of Orthoptera Research 33(2): 169–216. doi:10.3897/jor.33.112803.
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Çiplak B (2021) Locust and Grasshopper Outbreaks in the Near East: Review under Global Warming Context. Agronomy 11: 111. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11010111
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Meynard CN, Gay P-E, Lecoq M, Foucart A, Piou C, Chapuis M-P (2017) Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies’ niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change. Global Change Biology 23: 4739–4749. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13739
  8. ↑ Cullen DA, Cease AJ, Latchininsky AV, Ayali A, Berry K, Buhl J, De Keyser R, Foquet B, Hadrich JC, Matheson T, Ott SR, Poot-Pech MA, Robinson BE, Smith JM, Song H, Sword GA, Vanden Broeck J, Verdonck R, Verlinden H, Rogers SM (2017) From molecules to management: Mechanisms and consequences of locust phase polyphenism. In: Advances in Insect Physiology. Elsevier, 167–285. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.aiip.2017.06.002
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Gebregiorgis D, Asrat A, Birhane E, Tiwari C, Kiage LM, Ramisetty-Mikler S, Kallam S, Kabengi N, Gebrekirstos A, Wanjiru S, Mariam HG, Fitiwy I, Haile M, Enns C, Bersaglio B (2025) Critical gaps in the global fight against locust outbreaks and addressing emerging challenges. npj Sustainable Agriculture 3: 29. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44268-025-00029-0
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Salih AAM, Baraibar M, Mwangi KK, Artan G (2020). Climate change and locust outbreak in East Africa. Nature Climate Change 10: 584–585. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0835-8
  11. ↑ Zanna L, Khatiwala S, Gregory JM, Ison J, Heimbach P (2019) Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 116: 1126–1131. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808838115
  12. ↑ Barnett TP, Pierce DW, AchutaRao KM, Gleckler PJ, Santer BD, Gregory JM, Washington WM (2005) Penetration of human-induced warming into the world's oceans. Science 309: 284–287. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1112418
  13. ↑ Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Masson S (2014) The curious case of Indian Ocean warming. Journal of Climate 27: 8501–8509. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00471.1
  14. ↑ Roxy MK, Dasgupta P, McPhaden MJ, Suematsu T, Terray P, Masson S (2017) Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle. Nature Communications 8: 708. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00726-z
  15. ↑ Murakami H, Vecchi GA, Underwood S (2017) Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea. Nature Climate Change 7: 885–889. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0015-2
  16. ↑ Vitart F, Anderson D, Stockdale T (2003) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. Journal of Climate 16: 3932–3945. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3932:SFOTCL>2.0.CO;2
  17. ↑ Peng W, Ma NL, Zhang D, Zhou Q, Yue X, Khoo SC, Yang H, Guan R, Chen H, Zhang X, Wang Y, Wei Z, Suo C, Peng Y, Yang Y, Lam SS, Sonne C (2020) A review of historical and recent locust outbreaks: Links to global warming, food security and mitigation strategies. Environmental Research 191: 110046. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110046
  18. ↑ Meynard CN, Lecoq M, Chapuis M, Piou C (2020) On the relative role of climate change and management in the current desert locust outbreak in East Africa. Global Change Biology 26: 3753–3755. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15137
  19. ↑ Latchininsky AV (2017) Climate change and locusts: what to expect? Scientific notes of the Russian State Hydrometeorological University 46: 10.
  20. ↑ Yu G, Shen H, Liu J (2009) Impacts of climate change on historical locust outbreaks in China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 114. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011833
  21. ↑ Popova EN, Semenov SM, Popov IO (2016) Assessment of possible expansion of the climatic range of Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus L.) in Russia in the 21st century at simulated climate changes. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 41: 213–217.
  22. ↑ Youngblood JP, Cease AJ, Talal S, Copa F, Medina HE, Rojas JE, Trumper EV, Angilletta MJ Jr, Harrison JF (2022) Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts. Ecological Monographs. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1550
  23. ↑ Wang B, Deveson ED, Waters C, Spessa A, Lawton D, Feng P, Liu DL (2019) Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks. Science of The Total Environment 668: 947–957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.439
  24. ↑ Guan J, Li M, Ju X, Lin J, Wu J, Zheng J (2021) The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios. PeerJ 9: e12311. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.12311
  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 Descombes P, Pitteloud C, Glauser G, Defossez E, Kergunteuil A, Allard P-M, Rasmann S, Pellissier L (2020) Novel trophic interactions under climate change promote alpine plant coexistence. Science 370: 1469–1473. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd7015
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 Cease AJ, Elser JJ, Ford CF, Hao S, Kang L, Harrison JF (2012) Heavy livestock grazing promotes locust outbreaks by lowering plant nitrogen content. Science 335: 467–469. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1214433
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 Cease AJ, Elser JJ, Fenichel EP, Hadrich JC, Harrison JF, Robinson BE (2015) Living With Locusts: Connecting Soil Nitrogen, Locust Outbreaks, Livelihoods, and Livestock Markets. BioScience 65: 551–558. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biv048
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 Medina H, Cease A, Trumper E (2017) The resurgence of the South American locust (Schistocerca cancellata). Metaleptea Volume 37:17–21. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319987703
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 29.2 Word ML, Hall SJ, Robinson BE, Manneh B, Beye A, Cease AJ (2019) Soil-targeted interventions could alleviate locust and grasshopper pest pressure in West Africa. Science of The Total Environment 663: 632–643. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.313
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 Le Gall M, Word ML, Thompson N, Beye A, Cease AJ (2020) Nitrogen fertilizer decreases survival and reproduction of female locusts by increasing plant protein to carbohydrate ratio. Journal of Animal Ecology: 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13288
  31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 Le Gall M, Word ML, Thompson N, Manneh B, Beye A, Cease AJ (2019b) Linking land use and the nutritional ecology of herbivores: a case study with the Senegalese locust. Functional Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13466
  32. ↑ Talal S, Cease AJ, Youngblood JP, Farington R, Trumper EV, Medina HE, Rojas JE, Fernando Copa A, Harrison JF (2020) Plant carbohydrate content limits performance and lipid accumulation of an outbreaking herbivore. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 287: 20202500. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.2500
  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 Lecoq M, Sukirno (1999) Drought and exceptional outbreak of the oriental migratory locust in Indonesia. Journal of Orthoptera Research 8: 153-161. https://doi.org/10.2307/3503438
  34. ↑ 34.0 34.1 Poot-Pech MA (2017) Meeting on the locust situation in South America and the OIRSA region. Metaleptea 37: 2-4.
  35. ↑ 35.0 35.1 Poot-Pech MA (2016) La langosta voladora Schistocerca piceifrons (Orthoptera: Acrididae): hacia un manejo sustentable. El Patrimonio, su Importancia y Conservación, in Conociendo el Patrimonio, Cuerpo Académico Patrimonio y Desarrollo Sustentable, Editorial TECCIS ed Fontes, E. (San Francisco de Campeche): 58–66.
  36. ↑ Baumann M, Israel C, Piquer-Rodríguez M, Gavier-Pizarro G, Volante JN, Kuemmerle T (2017) Deforestation and cattle expansion in the Paraguayan Chaco 1987–2012. Regional Environmental Change 17: 1179–1191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1109-5
  37. ↑ Zhao L, Huang W, Chen J, Dong Y, Ren B, Geng Y (2020) Land use/cover changes in the Oriental migratory locust area of China: Implications for ecological control and monitoring of locust area. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 303: 107110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2020.107110
  38. ↑ Farrow R (1979) Population dynamics of the Australian plague locust, Chortoicetes terminifera (Walker), in Central Western New South Wales. I. Reproduction and migration in relation to weather. Australian Journal of Zoology 27: 717. https://doi.org/10.1071/ZO9790717
  39. ↑ Le Gall M, Word ML, Thompson N, Beye A, Cease AJ (2020) Nitrogen fertilizer decreases survival and reproduction of female locusts by increasing plant protein to carbohydrate ratio. Journal of Animal Ecology: 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13288
  40. ↑ 40.0 40.1 Welti EAR, Roeder KA, de Beurs KM, Joern A, Kaspari M (2020) Nutrient dilution and climate cycles underlie declines in a dominant insect herbivore. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 201920012. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920012117
  41. ↑ Levy O, Buckley L, Keitt T, Angilletta MJJ (2016) A dynamically downscaled projection of past and future microclimates. Ecology 97: 3242. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1444
  42. ↑ Kearney MR, Gillingham PK, Bramer I, Duffy JP, Maclean IMD (2019) A method for computing hourly, historical, terrain corrected microclimate anywhere on Earth. Methods Ecological Evolution 11: 38–43. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13330
  43. ↑ Kearney MR, Porter WP (2020) NicheMapR – an R package for biophysical modelling: the ectotherm and Dynamic Energy Budget models. Ecography 43: 85–96. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04680
  44. ↑ Maeno KO, Piou C, Kearney MR, Ely SO, Mohamed SO, Jaavar MEH, Ebbe MAOB (2021) A general model of the thermal constraints on the world’s most destructive locust, Schistocerca gregaria. Ecological Applications 31: e02310. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2310
  45. ↑ Poniatowski D, Beckmann C, Löffler F, Münsch T, Helbing F, Samways MJ, Fartmann T (2020) Relative impacts of land-use and climate change on grasshopper range shifts have changed over time. Global Ecology and Biogeography 29: 2190–2202. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13188
  46. ↑ Saha A, Rahman S, Alam S (2021) Modeling current and future potential distributions of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt. Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity 14: 399–409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japb.2021.05.001
  47. ↑ Kamga SF, Ndjomatchoua FT, Guimapi RA, Klingen I, Tchawoua C, Hjelkrem A-GR, Thunes KH, Kakmeni FM (2022) The effect of climate variability in the efficacy of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium acridum against the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria. Scientific Reports 12: 7535. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11424-0

[[Category:Special topic] [[Category:Climat]

Retrieved from "https://hopperwiki.org/index.php?title=Climate_change&oldid=233334"
Cookies help us deliver our services. By using our services, you agree to our use of cookies.